P · Philadelphia Phillies
Aaron Nola — P · Philadelphia Phillies. Next listed in Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves.
| Market | Line | Last 5 | Last 10 | Season avg | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| pitcher strikeouts | 4.5 | 40% | 60% | 5.36 | 33 |
| pitcher strikeouts | 5.5 | 20% | 50% | 5.36 | 33 |
| pitcher strikeouts | 6.5 | 20% | 50% | 5.36 | 33 |
| pitcher strikeouts | 7.5 | 20% | 40% | 5.36 | 33 |
| pitcher earned runs | 1.5 | 60% | 50% | 2.76 | 33 |
| pitcher earned runs | 2.5 | 40% | 20% | 2.76 | 33 |
| pitcher earned runs | 3.5 | 20% | 10% | 2.76 | 33 |
| pitcher hits allowed | 4.5 | 20% | 50% | 5.36 | 33 |
| pitcher hits allowed | 5.5 | 20% | 20% | 5.36 | 33 |
| pitcher hits allowed | 6.5 | 0% | 0% | 5.36 | 33 |
Hit rates are how often Aaron Nola has cleared that line recently, across 33 tracked games. They describe history, not price — a high hit rate at a line the market has already moved is not an edge. Read the prop research guide for how to use these numbers without being misled by them.
Projections come from role and usage — batting order position, snap and route share, minutes — rather than from a season average alone, because an average blends together games in which the player had a different job. Where a market price is available the projection is compared against the de-vigged consensus to produce an edge; where it is not, only the research is shown and no edge is claimed.
Every published pick is graded on the public ledger, losses included.
Last updated 2026-10-02.