The spots where the model's probability disagrees with the price a real book is offering. Each one shows the model number, the market number, and the edge between them.
Nothing appears here without a verified line attached. If a price cannot be confirmed against a book, the play does not get published.
3 further qualified plays on the board today.
A bet where the model's probability of the outcome is higher than the probability the price implies. Over a large number of bets, that gap is the only thing that produces a profit — a single positive EV bet still loses most of the time when the odds are long.
The offered price is converted to an implied probability, the book's margin is removed across the market to get a fair price, and the model's probability is compared against that fair number. The difference is the edge.
No. It means the price is better than the outcome deserves. A play with a 23% model probability and a positive edge is still expected to lose roughly three times out of four.
The book's built-in margin. Both sides of a market are priced so their implied probabilities add up to more than 100%, and the excess is the vig. It has to be removed before any comparison to a model number means anything.