Today's Board
Every game on today's slate with the model's win probability, the expected value against live market pricing, and the market context behind the number. Updated through the day as lines move.
Every published pick is graded in public on the ledger, wins and misses both. Nothing is removed after the fact.
Today's board
- NYY @ MIN (MLB) — Target Field · 9/15 - 7:40 PM EDT · model total 9.0 vs market 7.5
- NYY bullpen is a weapon (3.14 ERA, 0.97 HR/9)
- NYY hot: 7-3 in their last 10, +15 run differential (4.9 scored / 3.4 allowed per game)
- MIL @ PIT (MLB) — PNC Park · 9/15 - 6:40 PM EDT · model total 10.2 vs market 7.5
- MIL mashes righties (0.764 OPS, +0.054 vs their other split)
- MIL hot: 6-4 in their last 10, +23 run differential (7.4 scored / 5.1 allowed per game)
- LAD @ CIN (MLB) — Great American Ball Park · 9/15 - 6:40 PM EDT · model total 8.9 vs market 8.5
- LAD hot: 8-2 in their last 10, +26 run differential (5.8 scored / 3.2 allowed per game)
- LAD's confirmed lineup has history against this starter: 2 HR, 6 RBI in 26 AB (small sample, but real damage)
- KC @ HOU (MLB) — Daikin Park · 9/15 - 8:10 PM EDT · model total 9.3 vs market 8.0
- KC hits righties well (0.725 OPS, +0.030 vs their other split)
- KC bullpen is leaking runs (5.00 ERA, 1.35 HR/9)
- ATH @ TB (MLB) — Tropicana Field · 9/15 - 6:40 PM EDT · model total 8.3 vs market 8.0
- ATH bullpen is leaking runs (5.42 ERA, 1.27 HR/9)
- TB hits righties well (0.759 OPS, +0.075 vs their other split)
- SD @ COL (MLB) — Coors Field · 9/15 - 8:40 PM EDT · model total 8.1 vs market 11.0
- SD hot: 9-1 in their last 10, +13 run differential (5.3 scored / 4.0 allowed per game)
- SD's projected lineup has history against this starter: 2 HR, 32 RBI in 304 AB
119 more games on the board.
Common questions
How are the win probabilities calculated?
Each sport has its own model built on that sport's inputs — team ratings, recent form, matchup splits, bullpen or usage data — and the output is a probability, not a pick. That probability is then compared against the live market price to see whether there is an edge worth taking.
What does expected value mean in sports betting?
Expected value is what a bet is worth on average if you could place it many times. It is positive when the model's probability of winning is higher than the probability implied by the price you are offered, after removing the book's margin.
How often is the board updated?
Through the day as lines move and lineups are confirmed. Prices change, so an edge that exists in the morning may be gone by first pitch.
Is there a free version?
Yes. A demo tier gives a preview of the board and a limited number of EV reveals per day without an account.
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