3B · Arizona Diamondbacks
Nolan Arenado — 3B · Arizona Diamondbacks. Next listed in Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks.
| Market | Line | Last 5 | Last 10 | Season avg | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| batter home runs | 0.5 | 60% | 40% | 0.18 | 141 |
Hit rates are how often Nolan Arenado has cleared that line recently, across 141 tracked games. They describe history, not price — a high hit rate at a line the market has already moved is not an edge. Read the prop research guide for how to use these numbers without being misled by them.
Projections come from role and usage — batting order position, snap and route share, minutes — rather than from a season average alone, because an average blends together games in which the player had a different job. Where a market price is available the projection is compared against the de-vigged consensus to produce an edge; where it is not, only the research is shown and no edge is claimed.
Every published pick is graded on the public ledger, losses included.
Last updated 2026-09-16.