MLB Home Run Picks and Hitter Projections

Today's home run board, built from park factors, opposing pitcher HR/9, handedness splits, weather at first pitch, and recent batted-ball form.

Each name shows the inputs behind it, so you can see why a hitter is on the board rather than taking the number on faith.

Common questions

How are home runs predicted?

By combining the things that actually move home run rates: the park, the opposing pitcher's home runs allowed per nine innings, the handedness matchup, weather at first pitch, and the hitter's recent batted-ball form.

Which park factors matter most for home runs?

Dimensions and elevation dominate, but air density on the night matters more than most people expect — temperature and wind direction can move an expected home run rate materially at the same park.

When is the home run board posted?

In the morning for that day's slate, then revised as lineups are confirmed, since a hitter who is not in the lineup has no projection.

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